by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 12:35:00 PM

From BofA:

We initiated our 2Q GDP tracking after the April retail sales print. It moved up two-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to -0.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication [May 16th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. Our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate stands at -0.5%. [May 16th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on May 16, down from 2.5 percent on May 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and the release of import and export price indexes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 0.4 percent to -3.0 percent. [May 1st estimate]